Why it matters
Churn, refunds and chargebacks are three ways revenue leaks away after it has been won.
Rising churn means subscribers or retained clients are leaving faster. The business then needs more new customers each month just to stand still, and the recurring revenue you are buying will shrink unless you replace it.
Rising refunds and returns suggest that products or services are not meeting expectations. Headline revenue overstates what the business keeps, and support and delivery costs tend to rise alongside.
Rising chargebacks, where customers dispute a card payment through their bank, carry an extra risk. Card schemes run dispute monitoring programmes, and payment processors can hold back funds, raise fees or close a merchant account when disputes climb. For an online business, losing its payment account can stop trading altogether.
All three tend to rise before revenue falls, so a steady or growing revenue line can hide them for a while, especially if marketing spend is rising to cover the gap.
For SaaS, Loupe's valuation tool adds 10% to the multiple when monthly revenue churn is under 2% and takes 20% off when it is over 5%, at its starting settings. Net revenue retention above 110% adds 5%. For other models, the effect shows up in the revenue trend. Treat these results as indicative, and ask for the underlying data rather than a single average.
Churn is the rate at which a business loses customers or recurring revenue over a period. Customer churn and revenue churn can tell very different stories.
Recurring revenue comes back without being won again each time, through subscriptions, retainers or service contracts. Contracted revenue is the part committed for a fixed term.
Net revenue retention compares the recurring revenue from existing customers now with the same customers a year earlier, including upgrades, downgrades and cancellations.
How to spot it
- The seller gives total customer numbers but not how many joined and left each month.
- Churn is quoted as an average over several years, or only as customer churn when revenue churn is worse, or the other way round.
- Revenue growth depends on rising advertising spend.
- Refunds are netted off revenue with no separate line.
- Payment processor statements show disputes, reserves or delayed payouts.
- Review sites and app stores show complaints about billing, cancellation or product quality.
Questions to ask the seller
- What were monthly customer churn and revenue churn in each of the last 24 months?
- How do customers who joined in different months compare after six and 12 months?
- What were refund, return and chargeback levels each month, and what drives them?
- Has any payment processor warned you, held back funds or closed an account?
- Have you changed pricing, billing or cancellation terms in the last year?
Documents to request
- Customer-level exports from the billing or subscription system for the last 24 months
- Cohort retention tables showing revenue kept by sign-up month
- Refund and returns logs, with reasons
- Payment processor statements and dispute reports, including any correspondence about dispute levels
- Customer support ticket volumes by category
- Current and past terms of sale, subscription terms and cancellation policies
A holdback is part of the purchase price the buyer keeps back at completion and pays later if no valid claims arise. Unlike escrow, the money stays with the buyer.